Saturday, January 8, 2011

Vision : World By 2025...............

Within two decades or less, a rapidly rising India will very likely become the world's third largest economy - after China and the US.
It would be appropriate to start speculating now on what kind of a superpower India will be or could be when it becomes one.


Complex adaptive systems cannot change their stripes once theyhave evolved. How a system evolves determines its end-state. In short, how India becomes a superpower will predefine its structure, its mindset and its behaviour.



1. India's emergence as a superpower will show that it is possible to lift millions of people out of poverty within one generationwhile embracing pluralism, a free press and a vibrant multiparty democracy. Mostanalysts predict that, over the next two decades, India's GDP will grow at a faster pace than China's.


As the world's fastest-growing large economy on asustained basis, India's rise will put to rest the idea that acommand-and-control political system is the only viable route to rapid economicgrowth and that democracy is some how anti-thetical to rapid economic growth.


2.  India has the potential to serve as a leading example of how to combine rapid economic growth with fairness towards and inclusion of those at the bottom rungs of the ladder.


In a democratic system such as India's where even the poorest people exercise their political rights actively, fairnessand inclusion will be even more critical for social stability than in China. A sit becomes a great power, these values will likely become an enduring part of the country's DNA.


3. The prospects are high that, by 2025, India will likely emerge as one of the world's least corrupt developing economies.


While widespread corruption is a reality in almost all developing economies (as well as some of the developed ones), India is one of the very few developing economies with a free press that continues to be vigilant and merciless in exposing the corruption.


It is very likely that a vigilant and free press willensure that the likelihood of getting away with corruption will decline rapidly- with salutary deterrent effects.


4. India will likely emergeas one of the world's leaders in leveraging information technology (IT) to boost the effectiveness and efficiency of its institutions - the corporations, the government and as well as civil society organisations.


As 3G and 4G wirelessconnectivity becomes widespread over the next five years, it is a near-certainty that we'll see a rapid diffusion of low-cost tablet computers along with free ornear-free applications aimed at self-learning, mobile banking as well ascommercial productivity.

India in 2025, could well emerge as one of the world's most connected and IT-savvy societies.


5. India will almost certainly become a leading example of efficient resource utilisation, especially in energy.
India relies on imports for a bigger proportion of its oil and  gas needs than any other large emerging economy. The situation is likely to get worse, with sustained growth. The consequences are clear. One possible outcome is that India hits a resource-scarcity wall and economic growth comes to a screeching halt.


Moving forward; here's a PWC comments and predictions about global economy by 2050..
India is poised to overtake the USA and emerge as the World's second largest economy on purchasing power parity basis by 2050 and has the potential to supersede China to the top spot, says a report published by PwC.


China is expected to overtake the US as the world's largest economy sometimes before 2020, according to the report.

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